Why Traditional Strategic Planning Fails for Congregations

Traditional strategic planning assumes predictability—it’s an “A + B = C” approach. This outdated model relies on past experiences to predict the future, limiting our ability to think creatively. It’s like trying to imagine tomorrow by only looking at yesterday, where data drives decisions and uncertainty breeds fear. The result? A lack of imagination that traps congregations in cycles of limited thinking, unable to see beyond what’s been done before.

This problem isn’t unique to institutional religion. It exists in corporations, NGOs, and beyond. For example, I once worked with a publishing house that failed to see how Amazon would disrupt their business. Another client, an international corporation, couldn’t anticipate how shifting from B2B (business-to-business) to B2C (business-to-consumer) would reshape their industry. In both cases, their strategic planning was stuck in a backward-looking mode, unable to adapt to emerging realities.

A Shift in Thinking: From Labyrinths to Cones

Early in my consulting career, I realized my own visioning process was limited. I used to envision strategy as a labyrinth—going out, learning, coming back—where each pass taught something new. But even this image assumed a single path.

It wasn’t until I discovered “Futuring” that I broke free from linear thinking. Futurists like Amy Webb, founder of the Future Today Institute, taught me to view time not as a line but as a “cone of proximity.” Rather than focusing on a single path forward, this approach considers multiple possibilities and uncertainties as we move toward the future.

For congregations, this shift is essential. Many churches have historically tied strategy to tactical actions without a holistic view of transformation. This limits the impact they can have in their communities because they fail to see the full complexity of the emerging world.

Common Flaws in Congregational Strategic Planning

Here’s what a typical church strategic plan might look like:

Years 1-2:

• Hire/fire senior leadership
• Update bylaws
• Revamp the database
• Rent out the building

Years 3-5:

• Expand mission to serve the homeless
• Strengthen small groups
• Improve congregational care
• Adjust staffing levels

Years 6-10:

• Address financial sustainability
• Collaborate with other churches
• Seriously reevaluate building usage
• Further grow small groups

These are reasonable actions, but do they inspire hope? Are they transformative? Most importantly, do they prepare the congregation for the disruptive forces of modern life? Traditional planning often overlooks the bigger picture, missing the opportunity for real innovation and growth.

The Stories We Tell Ourselves

Many congregations are stuck in stories about decline. They believe shrinking attendance and giving are inevitable. They think if they just attract young families, their problems will be solved. But these narratives limit their vision and decision-making, focusing on reactive rather than proactive strategies.

The key to breaking free from these limiting stories is to make them conscious and actively reshape them. Congregations can then stop being reactive and start building a future aligned with their true values.

Enter the Futures Lab: A New Path Forward

In today’s uncertain landscape, many congregations feel pressure to adapt. But adaptation without vision is just reaction. A Futures Lab offers a structured, facilitated 3-4 hour process that helps congregations imagine a future grounded in foresight, not just historical data.

Using tools from Futures Literacy, a Futures Lab guides participants to surface hidden assumptions, consider unexplored possibilities, and reimagine the future they want to build. It helps congregations break free from “poverty of imagination” and chart a bold, innovative path forward.

Questions We Explore in a Futures Lab:

• What is the most likely future if we continue on our current trajectory?
• What does our most desirable future look like?
• What assumptions /blindspots are blocking our creativity?
• What impact do we hope to have on the world?
• What practical steps can we take now that create the future we now see?

These questions, coupled with small group discussions, reveal deep values and long-held assumptions. The process opens the door to new thinking and helps the congregation articulate a vision for the future that is both innovative and grounded in their unique mission.

What Will You Gain from a Futures Lab?

• Clear Direction: Gain clarity on your congregation’s future, with a defined vision for moving forward.
• Breakthrough Imagination: Expand your congregation’s capacity to think beyond conventional strategies, opening up new possibilities.
• Uncover Blindspots: Identify gaps in your current approach and make more informed decisions.
• Empowered Action: Leave with actionable steps to start shaping your preferred future today.
• Ownership of the Future: Take control of your congregation’s destiny, rather than being shaped by external forces.
• Renewed Energy: Revitalize leadership and membership by offering exciting, fresh ways to engage with your congregation’s mission.
• Collaboration and Unity: Foster community through small group discussions that build stronger relationships and shared purpose.
• Adaptability: Equip your congregation to be more responsive to shifting societal and cultural trends.
• Sustainable Decisions: Learn what practices and programs can be released, reducing strain and enabling a focus on your core mission.
• Confidence in Long-Term Planning: Engage in foresight and forecasting to confidently navigate uncertainty.

Here Is What Participants Say

“Participating in a Futures Lab was a transformative experience for our congregation. It opened our eyes to the assumptions we didn’t even realize we were holding onto and helped us break free from limited thinking about what’s possible. The process not only provided us with a clear vision of where we want to go but also gave us practical steps to begin making that vision a reality. We left feeling energized, unified, and equipped to face the future with hope and confidence. If your congregation is feeling stuck or uncertain about what’s next, I can’t recommend this experience enough!”

– Rev. Sarah Mitchell, Senior Pastor, Grace Community Church, KS

“The Futures Lab was exactly what our congregation needed to move forward. It challenged us to think beyond our usual patterns and really examine where we want to be in the years ahead. The small group process helped us uncover new ideas, question old assumptions, and set clear priorities for the future. What made it truly impactful was how practical it was—by the end, we had actionable steps that we could implement immediately. It’s a game changer for any congregation looking to not just survive but thrive in an unpredictable world.”

– Rev. James Roberts, First United Church, CA

“The Futures Lab was an eye-opening experience for our congregation. It helped us step outside of our comfort zone and consider the bigger picture of where we’re headed as a faith community. The facilitated discussions surfaced ideas and possibilities we hadn’t even considered before. What we appreciated most was how the process brought us together—everyone left feeling more connected and committed to the future we envisioned. It gave us a renewed sense of purpose and the confidence to take bold steps forward. Highly recommend for any congregation, region or national denomination.”

– Rev. Linda Thompson, First Presbyterian Church, FL